The Semiotics of Dress: Angela Corey for Governor? Maybe…

Angela Corey, as painted by George Zimmerman

October 1 was arguably the most important day in Angela Corey’s political career, and future historians of the state may see it as a watershed moment, for reasons we cannot really grasp at present. Angela Corey took the podium following the announcement of Michael Dunn’s guilty verdict in the first-degree murder of Jordan Davis, a conviction she failed to obtain earlier this year.

First Coast News cut their coverage of the presser just as the Q&A session had begun, while WJXT sustained their feed. She looked almost like a different person, in that moment, which makes sense. Any professional of any type can appreciate the feeling that comes after the successful resolution of a long-term, intensive high-stakes project, and can easily recognize that look on another’s face when they are in that moment. All the more so for Angela Corey, who hasn’t had a lot of those moments as our State Attorney. She took power amidst the proverbial firestorm of controversy, much of which was not her fault, and has steadily stoked those flames into a conflagration that many assumed would’ve consumed her fully by now. Without reaching for the obvious Phoenix reference, let’s just say that it appears the exact opposite has been the case. And the question now becomes: What next?

In her green blazer, her turquoise-and black scarf, gold earrings and a phat gold chain with a cross at the end, the city’s lead prosecutor could’ve passed for Iggy Azalea’s mom—and that is a good thing, in terms of politics. No velvet ropes at any bougie nightspot from South Beach to the South Bronx would impede her progress in an outfit like that, no more than the glass-ceilings have so far.

If clothes make the man, then even more so for women, and the message of Angela Corey’s clothes was simple: Even after botching the Zimmerman case and failing once to nail Michael Dunn for the murder of Jordan Davis, and with many observers predicting another public humiliation for her office, Corey dressed like someone who was absolutely certain of victory. And certainty is something we see very little in Florida politics.

If Michael Dunn is Corey’s first major trophy, one expects to see more. Whether she has found vindication in the public eye, or simply earned temporary respite from criticism that will never really go away, depends on what she wants to do. Any plans she has for her own future remain publicly unstated; if anyone knows, they’re not letting on. But Corey’s performance today raised an interesting possibility, one that many Floridians would surely find horrifying: Angela Corey could be governor someday.

Florida has never had a female governor, and Florida Republicans have never nominated a woman to hold that position. Democrats, of course, failed to get Alex Sink over in 2010, which has in all likelihood cooled the party on any effort to make history again, for the near future. Indeed, poor Nan Rich got steamrolled by the famously former Republican Charlie Crist, who refused to even debate her. Andrew Cuomo did the same against Zephyr Teachout in New York, and in both cases their state parties essentially went along with that. Whether anyone cares to admit it or not, at no point did Nan Rich ever have any chance whatsoever to be the Democratic nominee, that was plainly obvious six months before the election even happened.

Nan Rich was humiliated, and even if that wasn’t directly attributable to gender bias, it damn sure looks that way. One rarely heard Republicans ask if Florida was ready for a female governor, in part because they knew the momentum for gender equality in state politics belongs to them—a delicious irony that will pay off huge over the next decade or two. Whomever Florida’s first female governor is, she will almost certainly be a Republican—and it might very well be Angela Corey.

Getting the Dunn verdict gives her immediate credibility in the African-American community, which recognizes that Dunn was already set to die in prison on the other charges, but that Corey personally put her own career at risk to “do the right thing” for Jordan Davis’ parents and give them a rare symbolic victory in this bloody year for black youth. It doesn’t negate the damage done by the Marissa Alexander case, but the ball is really in Governor Scott’s court on that. If Corey didn’t get a few photos with Davis’ family and the crowds of black women cheering the verdict outside the courthouse, that would represent a huge missed opportunity.

The Alexander case illustrates that, ironically, Corey’s biggest political weakness right now remains her support among women, in particular the longstanding perception that she soft on issues related to violence against women and children. Given that this particular problem is only going to escalate in the years ahead, she would do well to get out in front on the issue and establish a record of action that can hyped when the time is right. (Her views on DCF, in particular, would be useful.)

Corey’s traditional law-and-order bonafides should be sufficient to keep her competitive in any GOP primary, especially if she continues to rack up high-profile convictions, so there will be plenty of room for her to appeal to elements of a progressive base whose own interests will be more or less ignored for the rest of this decade. The abysmal turnout for this year’s primary merely formalizes the widespread apathy and disgust that the majority of Florida voters already have with the leadership (such as it is) of both parties—a power vacuum ripe for filling. But, again, by whom?

Putting gender issues aside, the reality is that Northeast Florida has not held the top position in state government since Haydon Burns retired in January 1967. Several of Jacksonville’s subsequent mayors were at least discussed, Democrats and Republicans alike, but none were ever nominated. The election of Alvin Brown raised some hope of breaking that drought in this decade, and making even more history in the process, but he’s so far failed to build what could have been a very formidable statewide organization. Between Occupy and the HRO, he had the opportunity to establish himself as the logical successor to whomever wins in 2014, but instead he’s been occupied by defending his spot against opposition he should have simply neutralized from the get-go.

If Brown wins reelection and governs as the forward-leaning centrist his core supporters expect him to be, the governorship is entirely within his grasp. The I-4 corridor has had its run, and South Florida’s traditional dominance in the post-Consolidation era is weaker now that it’s ever been; it would be flat-out stupid for the north not to exploit that vulnerability while it exists. But if he stumbles, or just has no interest, it is imperative that Northeast Florida have someone ready to roll when the time is right. Regardless of who it is, Florida’s next decade should begin with Duval firmly in control. Time, as it does, will clarify these things, but right now Corey’s looking golden. And if the idea of Angela Corey being governor of Florida frightens you, good. You should be afraid—especially if you’re her opponent!

All Up In It: Notes on Mayor Brown’s self-promotional streak

“Hey, how’s 2015 lookin’ for ya, sir?”

As Mayor of Jacksonville, Alvin Brown has gone a long way to get himself over as a Man Of the People. He’s so gracious, in fact, that he routinely gives ammunition to his political enemies, who would have very little to work with otherwise. Case in point: A front-page article in the Florida Times-Union’s May 31 edition, centered around concerns expressed by members of the City Council that Mayor Brown’s gone too far with his trademark self-promotional tactics. Specifically, they claim that he’s monopolizing the services of the official city photographer, and that his name features too prominently on the City of Jacksonville (COJ) website. Slow news day? Yep.

Spoiler alert: Our city council is ridiculous. Are they actual people, or cardboard cut-outs whose public utterances are generated by computer algorithms? Of course the mayor is a self-promoting freakazoid; he was trained by Bill Clinton. The real question, though, is why does the general public never see or hear anything from council members unless they’re trying to block something or shut something down? Brown goes a bit far in trying to generate buzz for the city, sure, but maybe that’s because he’s surrounded by bland, uncharismatic people exuding negativity, always looking for new ways to throw the city under the bus to service their political/business agendas. (Hemming Plaza, Metro Park, etc.)

The City Council has been the weak link in local politics since the Peyton years. They blatantly go into business for themselves, thinking up ridiculous, counter-productive legislation while assiduously blocking the important things. The weakness they showed with the whole Occupy thing (esp. the Dems) was an obvious example. So, in terms of the city’s public image, the choice is between one guy who does way too much and 19 people who do nothing at all. Now, I’m no Democrat, but these people actually made me into an Alvin Brown fan. How the hell?

Fact is, Brown isn’t doing anything that any councilperson, or any politician in general, couldn’t be doing right now. My city council campaign started fairly late and was vastly underfunded, but I was able to be pretty competitive in a tight, seven-person race while pushing an agenda that deviated significantly from the mainstream. That was only possible because of the web, social media specifically. Brown was on that track already, as a candidate, and he’s taken that to a whole new level as mayor. While the techniques may be fairly new, critics who claim that his self-promotional tendencies are somehow unusual are flatly disengaged not only from the history of this city, but from political science in general.

The future mayor as candidate, 2011. Whatever he was reaching for, he got it…

One needs not cite national examples of people like Michael Bloomberg, Ed Koch, Richard Daley, Willie Brown, Maynard Jackson or Adrian Fenty, all of whom used their personal brand to enhance that of their city (and vice-versa); local examples abound, including virtually every mayor Jacksonville has ever had. Are Brown’s critics seriously suggesting that he’s acting inconsistently from his predecessors? Imagine what Tommy Hazouri’s Twitter feed would’ve looked like, or Hans “let’s pose at the city limits with a beautiful actress to promote Consolidation” Tanzler’s Instagram. And one can easily visualize the front-page of the COJ website, had the Internet existed in the Jake Godbold era.

Former mayor Hans Tanzler, doing what politicians do, 1968

The website is centered on Brown because Brown is the only person making an effort to promote positive initiatives in the public sphere. Everyone complains about him putting his name on the jazz festival, but it’s not like the councilfolk were out there mingling with the voters. Why are they complaining about the city photographer when they all have camera-phones, not to mention skilled photographers in each of their districts who’d work for free, just to have COJ work on their resumes? This is simply about people wanting to weaken Brown before the next election, so they can pick one of these malleable stuffed-shirt councilmen to challenge him in 2015. If every local politician made a fraction of the effort to engage their constituents using the power of the web, this city would be cooking with gas.

At the same time, from a political standpoint Brown is doing the right thing. He came into office only because the power structure couldn’t get along with each other; he exploited those divisions to squeak through, then immediately alienated a lot of his base. He needed to take control of his public image before conservatives tarred him with the same brush they’ve used on Obama, and begin constructing a persona that could resonate with people outside the city–in part for politics, and also to help attract business. All this hype about his self-promotion just keeps the focus on him; it’s not like any of his opponents have any vision for the city’s future, or else they’d be talking about that instead of whining because Brown does his job better than they do theirs. There is plenty of room on the internet for anyone who wants to make an impact.

I’d heard rumor that Rutherford might challenge him, which would be an interesting contest. I’m always hearing about this-or-that councilperson who might jump into the race, but that would seem like a step backward. Audrey Moran is his biggest threat; the only reason she’s not mayor now is because local Republicans hate women more than they hate black people (LOL!), plus she has a personal issue with the way Brown dealt with a lot of Moran supporters at city (i.e., eliminating them so she’d have no internal support if she did decide to go after him). But if she ran again, she’d be in a similar position as Hillary Clinton would be if she runs in 2016–namely, of having to spend a year or more kissing the asses of people who already threw her under the bus in 2011. One could understand why she might be inclined to leave the city to its fate. So, unless she runs, Brown walks.

Now, there were a couple points raised in the story and subsequent discussion that do need to be addressed. The first involves the city photographers, whom councilmembers claim are prohibited from photographing anything that the mayor is not actually part of. I’ve not been able to confirm the veracity of that allegation, but it’s entirely possible. Mayor Brown is disproportionately featured on the COJ website, but it’s unclear if that content features so prominently to the exclusion of content generated by the rest of local government. Certainly, Brown superimposes himself in places where his presence may not be exactly logical or holistic, but no one knows if that is true political avarice, or just a misguided need to be seen “making a difference”. Should he do less of this, or should the council do more. This debate has only begun.

And then, there’s the jazz festival. His having added the phrase “Mayor Brown Presents” to the festival’s promotional materials is widely-cited as the most common example of Brown’s perceived tendency to self-promote to the detriment of the city at-large, and it’s hard to see it as anything other than piggybacking an initiative that was not only successful long before he hit the scene, but whose success has virtually nothing to do with him. Of course, the mayor plays a key role in the process: His budgets fund the Office of Special Events, which organizes the festival. But for Brown to append his own name rankles old-school observers who can recall the real and critical work done for the festival by “Big Jake” and, a generation later, John Peyton. They had more cause to append their names, but neither did; they didn’t have to, because their impact was so obvious, it would’ve been like saying “Shad Khan Presents the Jacksonville Jaguars”. Now, would they have done so if they’d known it was possible? Probably not. All previous mayors have happily taken credit, when offered, for the historical success of the festival, but Brown is the first to actively seek that credit, in a vacuum. It’s not what I would have done, but I can totally appreciate why he did. After all, 2015 is just around the corner…

Top Billin’: Sonny Rollins booked for 2012 Jacksonville Jazz Festival.

Mayor Alvin Brown was the star at a press conference held Thursday morning, Feb. 9, to formally announce the 2012 Jacksonville Jazz Festival, which will be held downtown May 24-27. The big news coming out can be summed-up in just two words: “Sonny Rollins”. Jazz fans will need no further embellishment, but for the uninitiated (and becoming a hard-core jazz fan is kind of like an initiation): With the sole exception of Dave Brubeck, Rollins is the world’s greatest living jazz musician, a man whose influence permeates almost the totality of the music in the 60+ years since he first made his name in post-bop New York.

One must note, also, the presence of two other masters among a lineup that is still being finalized: Chick Corea and Terence Blanchard. But the booking of Rollins, who at age 82 does not play concerts that often anymore, and rarely outside the areas more epicentric to the music, is a major coup of historic proportions. He is probably the most important musician to work our festival since those peak years when Dizzy Gillespie headlined multiple festivals toward the end of his life. But that was the ‘80s—a whole different world. The idea of Sonny Rollins appearing in Jacksonville, Florida in 2012 will, for some, be interpreted as a sign of imminent apocalypse; a heavy cynic might wonder if the world is destined to end the day before.

By attaching his name to the festival, Brown does it a service by basically making the festival brand symbiotic with his own. This is a great move, for his own interests, and it also puts a bit of pressure on him to make sure the festival’s long-term momentum is maintained. There were deep initial concerns about its very future coming into this year. Funding for Office of Special Events (which also oversees things like the World of Nations festival and Veterans Day parade) had been in some jeopardy during the last few years of budget battles; while truly significant cuts were not made, the specter of such cuts—and their disastrous effect on the city’s cultural identity—was often invoked by the Peyton administration in its later years.

Those fears, stoked by Peyton, caught fire soon after Brown succeeded him. Those now-infamous staff cuts last year hit the OSE hard, resulting in the elimination of its two top people. Theresa O’Donnell-Price and Christina Langston-Hughes were two of the unsung heroes of city government in the first decade of this century, skillfully implementing the mayor’s mandate to restore the vitality of a festival that had seen better days. Last year’s festival turned out to be their last at the OSE and, headlined by Herbie Hancock and Roy Ayers, one of the best ever. But Brown, at that point less than a month in as Mayor-Elect, was on vacation at the time, so he missed seeing what they could actually do—and within a few months, they were shown the door as unceremoniously as everyone else.

Losing them both, simultaneously, was the biggest blow to the festival as an institution since the scandalous staff cuts at WJCT that led directly to the collapse of the festival under its direction in the late-‘90s. It was a dark day for local jazz fans, that’s for sure, and anxiety about the future has only built-up since. Initial buzz on the 2012 festival has already gone a long way toward assuaging many of these concerns, but more can be done. In a nutshell, there should be a heavy representation of local artists at the festival, the businesses of the Urban Core need to be better-integrated into the overall experience, and the City should take the lead in establishing an even stronger presence for the festival in media, both in terms of social media, as well as trying to strengthen relationships with local and national media.

After WJCT basically washed their hands of the logistics, and the country caught its first taste of the post-9/11 economic instability, it was a gamble to invest public money in the Jazz Festival. (Bear in mind, there are people who oppose its public funding even now, despite the overwhelming evidence of disproportionate upside, in terms of economic impact. If all public monies could generate such direct and visceral return on investment, the whole world would be different right now.) But Peyton did it anyway, in early signs that he was far more moderate than he ever got credit for, and I think we can all agree that the gamble paid off.

It’s entirely likely that, had anyone else become mayor in 2003, the Jacksonville Jazz Festival would have never survived into the 21^st century—the third century of jazz music, which was born in Storyville, New Orleans, in the late 1800s. For this, Peyton will surely someday join Jake Godbold among former mayors enshrined in the festival’s Hall of Fame. At this rate, Brown may end up there, too. He’s got a real gift for the kind of retail politics that work so well in the south, and initiatives like this put those skills out-front.

Having written more about the festival’s modern incarnation than any other reporter (if not all of them, combined), I can say that he’s done the two things I’ve always recommended the political leadership do: 1) Take advantage of the festival’s ability to bridge gaps among citizens, and 2) Bring Sonny Rollins to town. It will be curious to see if the national jazz media gives the festival a bit more hype now; we’ll see about that.

Money Jungle: Weakness Is Provocative

Weakness Is Provocative

Since the Occupy Jacksonville movement began, I’ve studiously avoided making comments about it in this space, mostly so I could see how it was handled by the authorities. Having witnessed much of their disgraceful behavior firsthand, I feel now obliged to speak my peace. The city’s crackdown on the Occupation going on outside of City Hall is humiliation for all citizens of a city that, let’s face it, routinely goes out of its way to humiliate itself.

Those of us who labor daily against the perception that Jacksonville is a sub-literate cesspool of racism and religious dogma, a place whose land, air and water are so polluted that the only things that grow here consistently are criminals, have seen our effort rebuked yet again. Whether it was corrupt fire inspectors in the 1990s or the disastrous DART raids of a couple years ago, our “leaders” have remained keen to waste law-enforcement resources on bullshit, despite ample evidence that their methods have actually empowered the organized crime groups that, let’s face it, control far more of this city than any silly old church.

The situation also tends to confirm the mayor’s political cowardice to those handfuls of observers for whom the question remained in doubt. Brown’s tenure has mostly been defined by throwing key supporters under the bus, while retaining much of the core of the administration that preceded his—the one he was elected largely in opposition to. From day one, Brown has acted like an embattled incumbent; it’s almost like he anticipates being there for just one term, a historical aberration, a failed experiment in the craven new style.

The Occupy movement represents, perhaps, the last significant opportunity to address the issues of corporate greed and economic and social inequality in non-violent fashion. It’s scary to think that, when young people organize to assert their constitutional rights to freedom of speech, assembly and association, the establishment reaction is viscerally negative.

Councilman Don Redman has been a constant presence at Occupy events, playing the role of amiable scold. Unless he’s secretly a part of the 99% (and some think he may be), he has devoted extraordinary amounts of his personal time harassing a bunch of kids who have not yet been trained in how to deal with hatemongers. Whatever the needs of the voters in his district, they should know those needs fall second to Redman’s need to bother the protesters. The recent crackdown indicates that it’s Redman, not Brown, who calls the shots as far as how this was handled. Speculation has already begun that the term-limited Redman may join what will surely be a wave of politicians seeking to unseat an already-weakened mayor Brown; Sheriff John Rutherford, who’s been at odds with the mayor and his own union, remains at the top of most lists, but more will come. Because weakness is provocative.

But let’s say this much for Redman: At least he showed up. Brown and other members of the Council have basically adopted the policy of other city leaders nationwide—that of running their mouths about things they have no understanding of. It makes sense that Brown, who bounced back and forth between the Beltway and Corporate America, would be ignorant of the underlying economic reality. It makes sense that his populist campaign rhetoric would be a front for more of the same-old, same-old. It makes sense that our visionary new leader is a just a cut-out caricature, eager to conform to stereotype.

Because as we’ve seen with President Obama, the first job for any black executive-branch pol is to act forcefully to retain the confidence and support of the white business leaders who brought them to power. Hence, the firings, politically-motivated. Ironic that a mayor who was elected largely on a promise to encourage growth downtown has signed-off on suppressing the only people who can actually draw numbers into downtown on a weekend without promising football or free food. It’s further ironic that most of the local Occupiers either voted for Alvin Brown or actively worked for his campaign. Well, they won’t next time!

Our mayor has apparently forgotten that he won by the closest margin in local history, and that it was the support of young progressives that kept him in the game back when elites were focused on that shoddy Hogan-Moran-Mullaney horserace. I’ve heard many Democrats in recent months wish aloud that Audrey Moran had just a little bit more guts, hadn’t been so passive in response to conservative attacks, had tried to reach out to progressive a little bit more instead of prostrating for the business community like everyone else has. Of course, it’s unlikely that she would have handled OccupyJax any differently because, overall, this movement exists to show the people of this country that our leaders have not only abnegated their responsibilities, but have deliberately acted against the best interests of this country.

Why? Because they are on the take. Every single politician in this country is hopelessly corrupt, whether they want to be or not. The system of campaign finance ensures that whoever wins any election is probably already bought and paid for by foreign capital. Those of you who complain about Brown now have forgotten  that he was trained by Bill Clinton, arguably one of the most morally bankrupt human beings to ever walk this earth. He learned his lessons well, but it remains to be seen how much the voters themselves have learned.

sheltonhull@gmail.com; December 24, 2011

“Brown Equals Green: The Conservative Case for Alvin Brown”

This column runs on Election Day, so most readers have already made their final choices for the handful of spots that remain in play, including Mayor and a few seats on the City Council. These are big decisions, with bigger consequences for our city, our state and perhaps even our country. When it comes to the top spot, I’ve decided to vote for Alvin Brown, and the next few paragraphs will hopefully help explain why.

I wrote in these pages a decade ago that our nation’s future depended to no small degree on what happened in Northeast Florida in that time. Unfortunately, I was proven right, as our strategic slack and political instability cost us the ability to continue being the “Bold New City of the South”—so the slogan was changed to reflect our projected status as the city people drive through en route to places that actually want the revenue generated by tourists and the relocation of new businesses and young families.

It was a revolutionary idea, the notion that anything that happens here matters. Many dollars have been invested cultivating the prevailing stereotypes of this region: racism, ignorance, illiteracy, a stern resistance to change of any kind on any level. The unstated subtext is that our citizens’ faith in God amounts to a form of mental disability that retards progress and stymies fresh thinking. Of course, the core of the church’s actual power is simply the perception of its power, ably assisted by liberal media.

Nevermind that Brown’s election would immediately counter the stereotypes and allow for the immediate rebranding that is so necessary. It would also send the message that Jacksonville is open for business. The case for him can be made in strictly capitalistic terms. His is ultimately a candidacy rooted in free-market conservatism, as reflected by the support he has drawn from the business community. People like Preston Haskell and Peter Rummel don’t fall in with losers. Tommy Hazouri, Matt Carlucci and Delores Weaver are no chumps. Even Ed Austin got “down with Brown” after he gambled and lost on Audrey Moran, writing a fat check in the last days of his storied life.

No mayor can upset the apple-cart. Transformative change is not on the table right now. Our nation’s municipalities are fighting an existential battle against 40 years of bad economic policy and a world war entering its second decade, reaching deeper into the homeland every day. The assorted cliques and cartels of this world are not laying people off like our governments and corporations are. Even al-Qaeda is recruiting a new CEO; the perks are great, but don’t even bother asking about the health insurance. There are challenges, but there’s no need to adopt a defensive posture.Jacksonvillemust take up a stronger leadership role in the economic, cultural and political life ofFlorida; if not, then you can easily imagine what the next few years will be like.

Mike Hogan is a good man, and a public servant of quality. While many outside observers, myself included, questioned the wisdom of putting his wife and grandchildren on-camera as de facto surrogates, the fact that they came off so well in those commercials is a testament to his abilities as a husband, father and grandfather, so good for him. It’s entirely possible that, once elected, Hogan could prove to be far more moderate than one might expect. He could even be the kind of loose cannon Florida’s gotten very good at producing—the kind of man for whom microphones turn themselves on.

For local progressives, this is probably the most important electoral stand they will ever make. For conservatives, this is a crucial test of what that ideology means in the new reality. The question revolves around growth and prosperity within a fair free-market system, versus slowing the speed of progress to service social objectives. Expectations were low for John Peyton, but he became one of our best mayors ever, and a plausible primary challenger to Rick Scott, who needs to be beaten in 2014, preferably by someone fromNE Florida—maybe even John Peyton. Alvin Brown is not the guy to do it, but he can help create the political conditions that make it possible.

I’ve long believed that the concept of “objective journalism” is ridiculous. Human beings have opinions about damn near everything, and those who don’t are either dumb or just lying, for one reason or another. “Objective” and “impartial” are different things; the debauched FoxNews slogan “Fair and Balanced” more closely approximates the point. The reporter should gather the facts, give all sides’ views a fair hearing, and give the audience an honest appraisal of the situation, whether it’s a war, a football game or a kitten stuck in a tree. Or, for that matter, a political contest.

sheltonhull@gmail.com; May 9, 2011

White-papers for Alvin Brown and Mike Hogan

[With the mayoral runoff exactly one month away, I thought it might be fun to take a closer look at what the campaigns must do in the weeks ahead to seal the deal. No one asked me, and certainly no one paid me, but I was bored, so hear ya go.]

Notes on the Alvin Brown campaign

*Aesthetics: The plainness of Brown’s buttons, signs, etc., reflects negatively on the campaign. It does the job for traditional voters, but the younger, hipper demographic he needs may see the stuff as cheap, plain, politics-as-usual. I’d strongly encourage the campaign to engage Tom P’s new designs for buttons, and provide him the resources to reboot the visuals associated with the campaign. Branding is crucial, especially with the campaign being so scandalously out-funded.

*Commercials: The Alvin Brown commercials that ran prior to the first round of elections are simply unacceptable. New ads should be short and sweet, emphasizing the key elements of Brown’s appeal: 1) Freshness and youth; 2) National connections that can be called on to the city’s benefit; 3) Real, tangible plans to move this city forward. He should be maintained as a smiling, yet serious leader who will fight to preserve the interests of the entire city. It’s good to utilize the river, an enduring symbol of the city’s history and its future. There should also be more visuals of Brown juxtaposed against people who don’t look like the “typical” Brown supporters—that is, working-class whites, veterans, police and fire personnel.

*The Democratic Party problem: The sad fact is that Brown’s party left him poorly-positioned for this battle. He was underfunded vastly by all his competition, which is disconcerting given his untouchable connections with the national party. They also failed to run a competitive slate for council elections, meaning that most progressives (i.e., likely Brown supporters) were bounced out in the first round, creating a situation where the Republicans can basically channel all of their energy and resources into backing up Mike Hogan. Even if Brown wins, he’ll be dealing with a City Council that will be overwhelmingly Republican, so he’ll have great difficulty enforcing his agenda while blocking the cuts favored by conservatives.

If Audrey Moran bows to party loyalty and endorses Hogan, there may be no possibility of an Alvin Brown victory. However, it should be made clear to voters and to the party itself that Democrats are unified behind Brown, and that he is the leader of the party. Members of the party leadership who dawdle should lose their spots; if they were at any regular job, they’d have all been fired weeks ago. Party leaders openly disparaged Brown, saying he had no chance of winning, encouraging liberal voters to support Moran. The people who did this need to fall on their swords and resign; keeping them around suggests that Brown is weak, and that he’s prepared to lose for the same of party unity. I’d suggest a letter, signed by all relevant persons, explaining the rationale (such as it is) behind the whispering campaign and expressing regret for having tainted their nominee.

*Minority outreach and uplift: A Brown victory will require the minority community to turn out in much greater numbers than they have in previous election cycles, and that is unlikely to happen without direct, aggressive action by his campaign. The GOP is counting on low minority turnout; the deliberately avoided challenging key black councilpersons like Denise Lee and Warren Jones so as not to get their people out in force to sway mayoral results.

*Winning the “Hipster” vote: Brown’s greatest asset in this race may well be the cadres of young, educated, well-traveled white people from affluent backgrounds active in the city’s cultural and business community. Young voters have the most to lose if the city goes into the tank, which is likely under a Hogan administration. Again, aesthetics are key to drawing them in. Also key is reaching out to tastemakers—bands, DJs, artists, chefs, owners of popular retail outlets. Not only do they command tremendous diverse influence across the city, touching on areas the other side doesn’t even know exist, but many of them are the children and grandchildren of the “good ol’ boys”, and their firm support for Brown may help sway their elders in that direction.

Young people are cynical about politics, and Obama’s problems in office have not helped. Brown needs to obliterate the perception that he’s “just another politician” and sell himself to the youth as the newest, freshest, most interesting mayoral candidate the state ofFloridahas had yet. He must appeal to those who are still working for their own financial security, those who needJacksonvilleto stay on-track for their own interests to prevail. Make it known that an Alvin Brown victory means empowerment for the young people of this city, and money in the pockets of the artists and musicians, chefs and brewers, baristas and bartenders, who need only a sympathetic ear in government, and less interference, to help make this city a national powerhouse.

*Appealing to the “Good Ol’ Boys”: The oft-repeated question “Is Jacksonville ready for a black mayor?” is fundamentally racist. It implies that black candidates are naturally inferior, and also that white voters are not smart enough to recognize the appeal of non-white candidates. The overwhelming success of Barack Obama in 2008 should have been the end of such talk, but now Brown has the opportunity to put that talk to rest. His election will immediately makeJacksonvillelook more intelligent and reasonable than most observers think, and that means more money in everyone’s pockets. In fact, a case can be made that Brown is actually more conservative than Hogan, if you start from a more classical conception of the ideology.

Brown should make no special effort to counter the lingering bigotry that exists in our city. Instead, he should position himself as the exception to whatever “rules” are thought to exist. He should be humble in dealing with them, thank them for all they’ve done for the city, and emphasize his willingness and desire to engage all viewpoints, whether they are in sync with his or not. He’s not here to torpedo their legacy; he and the young progressive who support him are the caretakers of their legacy. He’s not here to rock the boat; he’s here to plug the leaks so the boat can keep sailing toward a bright future that all citizens can share in.

The kinds of negative outcomes likely from a Hogan victory will be targeted as presumed “liberals”, but in the end it will most hurt those older white power players who put their entire lives into making this city great. These good ol’ boys now have to face the starkest choice of their lives: Either vote for a black man, a Democrat no less, or sit back and watch everything they’ve ever worked for destroyed, right before their eyes. Brown should work to get the endorsement of every living former Mayor, as well as former competitors like Moran and Rick Mullaney. Even if they are pledged to Hogan, he should still try to talk some sense into them, because they deserve a chance to do the right thing.

*Attacking Hogan: Not only is Mike Hogan a bad candidate, easily the weakest of the GOP field, but his lack of intellectual rigor and casual deference to national agitators like the Tea Party may be dangerous for a city facing great crisis in the years ahead. It’s a bad idea for Brown to do the attacking himself, but effective surrogates must be found who can make the case that, honestly, Alvin Brown is the only real choice available for anyone who wants to see this city remain relatively safe and profitable.

Hogan’s “joke” about bombing Planned Parenthood clinics should have been the end of his candidacy; the fact that it actually helped him confirms that many of his allies harbor similar sentiments. Hogan’s election could very well lead to someone bombing an abortion clinic, thinking their actions to be consistent with public opinion, as reflected at the polls. The feminist community (including NOW, Emily’s List and even Planned Parenthood itself) should be running their own ads emphasizing that Hogan was “joking” about an all-too-real threat to women and the doctors trying to get them access to family-planning services. A number of people have already been killed or maimed by such bombings; the commercials should include some of these images, and perhaps the insight of survivors and the loved ones of those who didn’t survive.

*The Debate Issue: The fact that there’s only one mayoral debate planned makes both candidates look like lightweights, but Brown’s campaign should emphasize his willingness to debate at any time, in any place and try to paint Hogan as someone who is afraid of contradictory opinions. Further, it’s worth asking (by surrogates) why Hogan’s camp feels the need to protect him. Is he afraid to debate Brown, specifically, or is he just afraid to debate in general? How can he expect to lead, to be part of what are certain to be highly contentious budget negotiations, if he can’t even spend an hour swinging at softball questions? Is the man even in control of his own campaign?

*Emphasizing the destructive nature of proposed cuts: Obviously, the changing economy requires new ways of dealing with the public sector. Waste must be reduced, spending must be curtailed, cuts must happen. There is nothing controversial about this. But the Brown campaign should make it clear, over and over and over again, that the kinds of cuts being proposed and talked about will undermine the city’s ability to build its tax base back up; they will lower property values, increase crime, and further limit the effectiveness of our public education system.

Hogan should be depicted as a puppet of this national movement to impose hard times on working families in order to service corporate interests, including Wall Street. No one else benefits from spending cuts, certainly not the people. Taxpayers who think they’ll be saving money are, in fact, being suckered into sacrificing what little financial independence the country has left. Hogan and his allies should be depicted as trying to use a machete to do a job better-done with scalpels or lasers. His support for draconian cost-cutting suggests unfamiliarity with how the free-market works, or the delicate balance between the public and private sector.

It’s further worth asking (especially of “old-school” conservative voters) why so-many so-called “conservatives” are jumping to do the bidding ofTallahasseeandWashington,DC. Local and state governments, as well as their citizens, are losing more and more of their powers of self-determination, and Hogan should be depicted as a tool of Tea Party interests that remain ambiguous and suspicious. With the City Council majority solidly Republican (largely because Democrats chose not to bother going after almost any of the open seats, while standing down against a half-dozen vulnerable Republican incumbents), a vote for Brown can be defined as an important check on aspirations of a lunatic fringe that’s using the city budget to enact social policy.

Many negative words can and should be used to describe the cuts: harsh, cruel, vicious, nasty, brutal, reckless, mean-spirited, excessive, reactionary, over-emotional, exploitative, opportunistic, poorly-researched, politically-motivated, self-destructive, anti-American. Alvin Brown once worked for a man who promised to “build a bridge to the 21^st century”, and he did it, whereas Mike Hogan is part of a crew intent on burning that bridge down, regardless of the consequences. (Note also that the candidates who promise to cut the most, the fastest, are the one who draw the most campaign funding—an internal contradiction worth exploiting.)

The Brown campaign should reach out to all those interest-groups that stand to lose from the proposed cuts, and encourage them to speak out on his behalf, to help him raise the money needed to compete with this juggernaut. These groups include the Friends of the Jacksonville Public Library, Cultural Council, community groups like RAP, MHPA, etc. Also reach out to the athletics community, from high-school and Pop Warner parents and coaches to members of the Jaguars (especially people with local ties like Rashean Mathis and Tony Boselli, as well as the Weavers themselves). If proposed cuts go through, we may be unable to keep the Jaguars inJacksonville, which would mean a billion-dollar investment goes down the drain. That’s not conservative!

Notes on the Mike Hogan campaign

 [Being the apparent front-runner with only a month to go, Mike Hogan’s job is a lot easier than Alvin Brown’s, but this is anyone’s contest.]

*Aesthetics: Spot-on. The visuals are simple, but using the Main Street Bridge as an “H” shape was a really smart piece of business, accomplishing a couple goals at once: 1) providing a logo; 2) linking Hogan with infrastructure and the river in a positive way (even though both will suffer under his watch). Do nothing else.

*Minimize overall turnout, while maximizing turnout among Hogan supporters: The lower the turnout citywide, the better Mike Hogan’s chances of winning on May 17. Low turnout among youth, minorities, women and the poor are all key, as these are all constituencies unlikely to support Hogan’s agenda. A best-case scenario involves heavy rain that Tuesday, and preferably for days beforehand to reduce early-voting numbers, too; pedestrians don’t vote Republican.

Conversely, Hogan supporters must be sure to vote early, and spend their remaining time getting others out to the polls. Democrats know that victory depends on a big turnout, and if they do everything right, they can definitely win, so the Hogan team needs to prepare for the political equivalent of trench warfare, just in case.

The insanely-low turnout in the first round helped swing the vote in Hogan’s direction, even though it was a slap in the face to all the mayoral candidates, especially the ones who lost. Audrey Moran’s freak elimination removed the strongest candidate in the entire field, someone who would have likely crushed Hogan in the run-off. Alvin Brown is formidable, but it’s unclear if he can manifest his natural strategic advantages (youth, connections, an agenda that’s more palatable to voters at-large) enough to check the glaring disadvantages (he’s black, he’s underfunded, he’s a Democrat).

*Minimize candidate face-time: Mike Hogan has minimal appeal to the electorate. He seems a nice enough guy, but no one’s going to get excited over him. Plus, his agenda equates to prolonged austerity for everyone; the less said about that, the better. He will be better off staying out of the public eye, cruising on his cushion of cash and trusting that the Democrats will lay down and roll over like they usually do.

Resist attempts to cutesy him up with contrived TV interviews and excessive commercials—it does not work. Liberal media will, if they’re smart, be reaching steadily for any gaffes or gimmicks by which to bury him, and he’s already given them plenty. The fact that the Planned Parenthood joke was not the end of his political career speaks directly to the weakness of his opposition. Anyone who can’t bring down the walls ofJerichowith that kind of ammo is probably incapable of any real challenge.

*Reinforce establishment credentials, reaffirm establishment support: Democrats will try to paint Hogan as a puppet of the Tea Party’s reckless thirst for austerity—a step in the wrong direction from city tradition. Hogan must make it known that his agenda is the city’s agenda. He should enlist former mayors to restate the need for such cuts, to say they would be doing the same things in his position. The things being proposed just do not seem reasonable to many voters, and that sentiment will only increase as the cuts are executed, and the likely effects are incurred. The message should be that the voters have no other choice but to elect him and do whatTallahassee says we must. Will people leave this city? Absolutely—but most of them will be liberals, so good.

*Exploit vulnerabilities of the Democratic Party, while raising doubts about Alvin Brown’s capabilities: Many key Democrats never supported Alvin Brown to begin with, and openly advocated for Democratic votes to be thrown to Audrey Moran. Hogan’s camp should imply that Brown’s making the runoff was a fluke attributable to the low turnout and not really a reflection of the will of the voters. They should point to the vast fundraising disparity, despite Brown’s high-profile DC connections, as proof that, really, the choice for conservative domination of local politics has already been made. And with the City Council mostly Republican, how effective can he really be? A vote for Brown, under these conditions, can be defined as a vote for gridlock and stagnation.

(Republicans should master the phrase, “He’s a nice guy, but …”, re: Brown.)